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孙 克,徐中民.人文因素对省域环境污染影响的空间异质性估计.生态学报,2017,(8).http://dx.doi.org/10.5846/stxb201602150284  
人文因素对省域环境污染影响的空间异质性估计
Spatial heterogeneity estimation of the impacts of human factors on environmental pollution in Chinese provinces
投稿时间:2016-02-15  最后修改时间:2016-08-01
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201602150284
关键词人文因素  环境污染  STIRPAT模型  空间异质性
Key Wordshuman factor  environmental pollution  STIRPAT model  spatial heterogeneity
基金项目国家自然科学基金项目(91125019,91325302)
作者单位E-mail
孙 克 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室 sunke07@163.com 
徐中民 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室  
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摘要:
利用2013年全国31个省级行政区的截面数据,采用环境污染货币化方法估算了2013年中国省域环境污染损失,利用基于地理加权回归技术的STIRPAT模型,对人口规模、富裕程度、产业结构、城镇化和对外开放等人文因素对省域环境污染的影响进行了空间异质性估计,同时验证了EKC假说。主要结论如下:(1)2013年中国环境污染引起的经济损失为2812.48亿元。(2)各省域环境污染存在空间相关性和空间异质性,省域环境污染空间分布上呈现东高西低的格局。(3)人文因素对省域环境污染具有显著影响,人口和经济的增长及推进城镇化将加剧省域环境污染,而产业结构升级和扩大对外开放将有助于缓解省域环境污染。(4)人文因素对省域环境污染影响存在空间异质性。人口数量对省域环境污染的影响程度由西北向东南渐次增大;富裕程度对省域环境污染的影响由西向东梯次增大;产业结构对省域环境污染的影响由东向西逐渐增大;城镇化对省域环境污染的影响由西向东逐渐降低;对外开放对省域环境污染的影响由东向西逐渐增大。(5)基于现有样本的计算结果有条件地支持EKC假说。
Abstract:
In China today, environmental pollution have become important factor that restrict sustainable development in China. Accurate analysis of the impact of human factors on the regional environmental pollution in province is an important part of the current research on sustainable development. The GWR measurement model is more accurate than the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) model because of its spatial factors. According to the theory of loss of environment pollution in currency, we estimated loss of environment pollution of 31 provincial regions in China in 2013 and explored the features of spatial distribution of the Chinese environmental pollution using the method of spatial autocorrelation analysis. We quantitatively examined the impacts of China’s population, affluence, and technology on the environment pollution by constructing a STIRPAT model based on the GWR. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the economic loss caused by environmental pollution in China in 2013 is ¥2812.48×108yuan. The noise pollution is the main factor causing the loss of environmental pollution. (2)there are spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity , and the spatial distribution of regional environmental pollution in the provinces is the pattern of the East High and West Low. (3)human factors to the provincial environmental pollution has significant effect, population and economic growth and promote urbanization will exacerbate the provincial environmental pollution, and industrial structure upgrading and expanding the opening to the outside world will help to alleviate some of the provincial environmental pollution. (4) the influence of human factors on the provincial environmental pollution has a spatial heterogeneity. Population of the extent of the impact of the provincial environmental pollution from the northwest to the southeast gradually increases; affluence on the influence of the provincial environmental pollution from west to east echelon increase; industrial structure on the impact of the provincial environmental pollution from east to west is gradually increasing; urbanization of the provincial environmental pollution influence from west to east gradually reduced; opening to the outside world on the influence of the provincial environmental pollution from east to west increases gradually. (5) the calculation results based on the existing samples are conditional to support the EKC hypothesis.
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