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张振龙,孙 慧,苏 洋.中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放的空间分布与趋势演进.生态学报,2017,(16).http://dx.doi.org/10.5846/stxb201605190965  
中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放的空间分布与趋势演进
The Spatial Distribution and Evolution Trends of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the Northwest Arid Region of China
投稿时间:2016-05-19  最后修改时间:2017-03-06
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201605190965
关键词农业生态系统碳排放  空间分布  趋势演进  西北干旱地区
Key WordsAgricultural carbon emissions  the Spatial Distribution  Evolution Trends  the Northwest arid Region of China.
基金项目国家自然科学基金项目(71463056,41461114); 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2016D01B054)
作者单位E-mail
张振龙 新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心 zhangzhenlong2015@163.com 
孙 慧 新疆大学经济与管理学院;新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心  
苏 洋 新疆大学经济与管理学院;新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心  
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摘要:
研究西北干旱地区农业生态系统碳排放的空间分布特点与演进规律对于我国制定更具针对性的农业减排政策具有重要的指导意义。本文对2000—2013年中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放量进行测算的基础上,运用非参数核密度方法对中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放的演进趋势进行分析,研究发现:中国西北地区农业生态系统碳排放总量增势强劲,但空间非均衡性特征明显,以新疆最高,甘肃次之,陕西和青海居中,宁夏最低,农业碳排放源从以畜牧业为主向以种植业为主转变;西北地区农业碳排放强度呈下降趋势,省域差距明显,碳排放强度由大到小排序依次是:青海 > 宁夏 > 甘肃 > 新疆 > 陕西。从考察期内西北干旱地区农业碳排放的地区差距来看,整体上呈扩大趋势,但相对微弱的变化态势则反映了其变化幅度相对有限,其原因在于四种碳排放的变化趋势不一致,具体表现为:农田土壤碳排放的地区差距明显扩大;农用物资碳排放的地区差距在大幅扩大的同时,还表现出峰值从陡峭变为平缓,变化区间大幅扩大的现象;牲畜肠道发酵碳排放地区差距大幅缩小;牲畜粪便碳排放的地区差距也明显缩小。
Abstract:
It has long been recognized that there are certain physical limits on the global availability of economically-valuable natural resources underlying their potential exhaustibility. However, for effective stewardship of earth''s resources, it is evident that the economy–environment interaction must acknowledge these ecological constraints. Sustainability in agricultural production systems is now being seen through the lens of resource recovery where enhancing crop productivity through resources recovered from wastes is seen as a potential solution to ensure food security. It has significant guideline sense to enact more specific policies on agricultural carbon emissions that doing the research on the characteristics and evolution rules of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon distribution. Based on the estimation of the agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the arid regions of Northwest China from 2000 to 2013, this paper prepares to analyze the evolution of carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry of this area through non-parametric kernel density estimation method. Known as a non-parametric estimation method, kernel density estimation is usually used to estimate an unknown probability density function. In quantitative spatial analysis, kernel density estimation has been widely used in density surface mapping and “hotspot” detection by converting spatial sample points to a raster map of density surface. In the results, we find that agricultural carbon emissions in the Northwest Region of China grow powerfully; however, its spatial non-equilibrium characteristic is obvious. The emission of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon in Xinjiang ranked first, Gansu province second, Shaanxi province and Qinghai province located middle, Ningxia is the lowest. Agricultural carbon emissions transformed from the livestock breeding to the planting industry. The intensity of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the northwest region is declining, but the regional disparity is obvious. The intensity of carbon emission from big to small sort order is that: Qinghai> Ningxia >Gansu> Xinjiang >Shaanxi. Form observing the region different agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the arid regions of Northwest China, it has the expanding tendency. But the relatively weak change trend reflects its relatively limited changes, which lies in different changing tend of four carbon emissions. From the performances of the four carbon sources, we can find that the regional difference of carbon agricultural land emissions is obviously enlarged. The regional gap of carbon emissions of agricultural and animal husbandry materials is greatly expanded, sometimes transferring from sharp to flat. The gap of the carbon emissions in the intestinal tract of livestock is reduced. Regional differences in carbon emissions from livestock manure were also significantly reduced.
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