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张振龙,孙 慧.基于VAR模型的新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联性研究.生态学报,2017,(16).http://dx.doi.org/10.5846/stxb201605190966  
基于VAR模型的新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联性研究
Research on the dynamic relationship between water-intensive industrial ecosystem and economic growth in Xinjiang based on VAR model
投稿时间:2016-05-19  最后修改时间:2017-03-06
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201605190966
关键词耗水产业生态系统  经济增长  动态关系  VAR模型  新疆
Key Wordswater-intensive industrial ecosystem  economic growth  dynamic relationship  VAR model  Xinjiang
基金项目国家自然科学基金项目“资源型产业碳排放损益偏离分析及区域公平发展研究”(71463056);“旅游专业化水平测度与区域经济增长 关系的研究———以新疆为例”(41461114);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目“乌鲁木齐市自然⁃社会水资源代谢过程与循环机制研究” (2016D01B054)
作者单位E-mail
张振龙 新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心 zhangzhenlong2015@163.com 
孙 慧 新疆大学经济与管理学院;新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心  
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摘要:
新疆正面临“五化同步”对水资源的需求不断增长与水资源开发利用过度的矛盾。水资源瓶颈制约已成为影响新疆经济可持续发展和长治久安的突出问题之一。运用VAR模型,通过ADF检验、脉冲响应函数和方差贡献度分解,对2000-2014年新疆耗水产业生态系统和经济增长的长期均衡关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)经济增长与总用水量、工业用水量和农业用水量之间均存在长期均衡关系;(2)经济发展对用水量产生负向冲击,工业用水量和农业用水量随着经济发展出现正向冲击效应。(3)新疆经济快速增长伴随着水资源的大力开发和过度利用。据此提出对策建议,通过实施严格的退地减水政策,明确用水总量控制和定额指标,加强跨流域调水工程建设,防止浪费等多途径维持新疆水资源可持续利用和耗水产业健康发展。
Abstract:
Xinjiang is facing the contradiction between increasingly growing demand and overuse of water resources brought by 5-tion synchronization. Excessive utilization of water resources strongly influences local economic development and plays a vital role in accelerating ecological degradation. The bottleneck of water resources has become one of the outstanding issues that affect the sustainable development and long-term stability of Xinjiang''s economy. To address the above concerns, the government should strengthen water infrastructure construction for improving water use efficiency, and thus increase the quantity and frequency of irrigation during ecological recovery. VAR model can deal with situations when some random parameters or variables appear in the modeling formulation of a program. Such random parameters are expressed as probability density functions (PDFs). This implies that ADF test technique can be employed when the quality of uncertain information is comprehensive. The results can be interpreted under different level of probabilities (or risks). Preciously, a number of stochastic programming methods were developed to support decision making of water resources management and planning. Among them, VAR model is proved effective for problems where an analysis of policy scenarios is desired and the right-hand-side coefficients are random with known probability distributions. Therefore, as an extension of the previous works, the objective of this study is to make practical research of the long-term equilibrium relationship between Xinjiang''s utilization of water resources and the economic growth by using VAR model, the ADF test and cointegration, accompanied with the decomposition of generalized impulse response and variance contribution degree. The results show that Firstly, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth and total water consumption, industrial water and agricultural water. Secondly, with rapid development of economy, it has a negative impact on the use of water, yet industrial usage of water and agricultural usage of water has positive impact on it; Lastly, accompanied with the booming economy of Xinjiang, it carried the problem of water resources’ over-exploit and over-utilization. Based on the above factors, this article puts forward several suggestions to maintain the sustainable utilization of the water resources and the healthy development of economy in Xinjiang., such as implementing strict policies on decreasing lands and water resources, clarifying the amount of using water, strengthening the construction of interbasin water transfer project, and avoiding excessive consumption etc. The results obtained will be used for helping local decision makers to establish effective water exploitation and allocation policies, and thus facilitate the local agriculture sustainability.
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