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李卓,孙然好,张继超,张翀.京津冀城市群地区植被覆盖动态变化时空分析.生态学报,2017,(22).http://dx.doi.org/10.5846/stxb201609231919  
京津冀城市群地区植被覆盖动态变化时空分析
Temporal-spatial analysis of vegetation coverage dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan regions
投稿时间:2016-09-23  修订日期:2017-06-14
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201609231919
关键词京津冀  MODIS NDVI  植被覆盖变化  持续性
Key WordsBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei  MODIS NDVI  vegetation cover change  sustainability
基金项目国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590843)
作者单位E-mail
李卓 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 lizhuo56@foxmail.com 
孙然好 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 rhsun@rcees.ac.cn 
张继超 辽宁工程技术大学测绘与地理科学学院  
张翀 宝鸡文理学院  
摘要点击次数 142
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摘要:
基于MODIS NDVI 遥感数据,采用线性回归分析、稳定性分析、R/S分析等数理方法,反演了2005-2015年京津冀地区植被覆盖时空演变趋势和稳定性,并在此基础上对植被未来变化趋势进行评估和预测。结果表明:(1)2005-2015年京津冀地区植被覆盖度呈上升趋势(增长速率0.065/10年),增长过程经历两次飞跃期后,进入平稳波动阶段;(2)京津冀地区植被恢复以显著改善为主(47.45%),不显著变化区域占全区面积的三分之一(33.9%),主要以华北平原为中心展布,退化区域比重为6.8%,零星散布于各大城市周边。稳定性整体表现为“高低波动并存,低波动居多,地域性明显”;(3)京津冀地区植被持续恢复为主,植被覆盖持续改善区域比重超过一半以上(58.8%),反持续性改善比重为34.4%,主要集中在张家口、沧州以及保定东南地区;持续退化比重为4.8%,主要分布在天津、廊坊、沧州一带。研究结果将有助于辨识京津冀城市群地区的植被动态演化和生态网络连通性现状和趋势。
Abstract:
In order to monitor the variation and stability of vegetation coverage and predict its evolution trends in the future , in this paper, based on the MODIS NDVI remote sensing data, analyzes the temporal-spatial distribution of vegetation restoration during 2005-2015 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, using linear regression, coefficient of variation, R/S analysis and other mathematical methods. Studies have shown that: (1) From 2005 to 2015, the vegetation coverage showed an increasing trend (0.065/10a) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and after two fast-improving periods, vegetation restoration entered a stable fluctuation phase relatively.(2) The largest proportion of the contribution to vegetation restoration was significantly improved area (47.45%), followed by insignificant area(33.9%) which was mainly in the North China Plain and degraded area(6.8%) scattered on the surrounding of big cities; The stability of study area shown "Coexistence of high and low volatility, low volatility mostly, regional obviously" integrally. (3) Form the point of sustainability, vegetation sustained recovery(58.8%) is the main theme in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and the anti-sustainability recovery area accounted for 34.4% mainly concentrated in Zhangjiakou, Cangzhou, and the south-east of Baoding; continued degradation area(4.8%) mainly distributed in Tianjin Langfang Cangzhou. The results will help to identify the dynamic variation of vegetation and the status and trends of ecological network connectivity.
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