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严应存,豆青芳.青海省门源县近29a青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动分析.生态学报,2018,(4).http://dx.doi.org/10.5846/stxb201701090067  
青海省门源县近29a青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动分析
YAN Yingcun1,2 DOU Qingfang1,3
投稿时间:2017-01-09  修订日期:2017-09-27
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201701090067
关键词门源县  青稞  物候期变化  驱动因素
Key WordsMenyuan County of Qinghai Province  spring highland barley  phenophases change  Driving factor
基金项目青海防灾减灾重点实验室项目(2017⁃ZJ⁃Y28);青海省气象局重点项目;青海省科技厅重点项目(2017⁃SF⁃131)
作者单位E-mail
严应存 青海省气象科学研究所青海省防灾减灾重点实验室 yanyingcun@sohu.com 
豆青芳 青海省气象科学研究所;青海省防灾减灾重点实验室  
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摘要:
利用1980-2015年青海省门源县农业气象站的青稞物候期及其平行气温和降水资料,分析了气候变化背景下青海省门源县青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素,结果表明:播种、出苗和拔节期呈推迟趋势,其中播种期以2.65d/10a的趋势极显著推迟,其余物候期均呈提前趋势,其中分蘖期以4.78d/10a的趋势极限著提前,抽穗2.30d/10a的趋势显著提前。显著影响青稞物候期的气候因子为稳定通过0℃积温、上年9月和当年4月最低气温,自1980年以来也呈极显著升高趋势,升高幅度分别为116.28℃/10a、0.680℃/10a和0.587℃/10a。自20世纪90年代出现播种和抽穗期推迟、分蘖期提前、驱动因子升高突变现象。播种期突变滞后于温度,分蘖和抽穗与驱动因素突变基本同步,表明青海高原气候变暖是青稞物候期变化的主导因素。
Abstract:
Based on the 1980-2015 highland barley phenophase and its parallel temperature and precipitation data from Men yuan agricultural meteorological stations in Qinghai province, analyzed the climate change under the background of highland barley phenophase change and its driving factors. The results showed that the sowing, emergence and elongation stage showed trend of delay. Over the past 29 years, temporal trends present significantly delayed of the seeding stage (2.65d/10a ), The rest phenophases were trend ahead, the temporal trends presented significantly ahead of the tillering stage and heading stage(4.78 d / 10a and 2.30 d / 10a). The dominating climate factors of significantly influence highland barley phenophases were accumulated temperature of stability through 0℃, the lowest temperature in April and September of last year and, also significantly increased trend since 1980, rise which were 116.28 ℃ / 10 a, 0.680 ℃ / 10 a and 0.587 ℃ / 10 a. Since the 1990 s, the trends delayed of seeding and heading stage, tillering stage ahead , driving factors step-up appeared mutation phenomenon. Seeding time mutation lags behind temperature, tillering and heading stage basic synchronization mutation with driver factors, and shows that climate warming is the dominant factor of highland barley phenophases change in qinghai plateau.
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