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刘垚,魏巍,刘维,王健,包云轩,杨若子.FLEXPART模式模拟褐飞虱回迁的适用性研究.生态学报,2018,(8).http://dx.doi.org/10.5846/stxb201704160675  
FLEXPART模式模拟褐飞虱回迁的适用性研究
Applicability of simulating the Nilaparvata lugens’ return migration by FLEXPART model
投稿时间:2017-04-16  修订日期:2017-12-05
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201704160675
关键词褐飞虱  %20WRF-FLEXPART模式  适用性  模式验证  
Key WordsNilaparvata%20lugens%20(St?l)  %20WRF-FLEXPART%20model  %20applicability  %20model%20validation  
基金项目中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室指令性项目;国家自然科学基金(41475106,41075086)
作者单位E-mail
刘垚 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室; 宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室; 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室 liuyao314@163.com 
魏巍 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室  
刘维 国家气象中心  
王健 中国农业科学院植物保护研究所  
包云轩 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室  
杨若子 北京市气候中心 ruoziyang@163.com 
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摘要:
褐飞虱是威胁我国水稻生产安全的主要害虫之一,已经严重地威胁到我国南方地区水稻的安全生产。褐飞虱作为一种风媒迁飞性昆虫,与大气气溶胶粒子的运动相似。采用褐飞虱迁飞相关参数,利用WRF-FLEXPART模式模拟分析两次褐飞虱秋季回迁过程。通过模拟2013年9月20—24日褐飞虱迁入兴安县的迁飞过程,发现褐飞虱虫量的模拟结果与实验观测到的褐飞虱高空灯诱数据相近、变化趋势一致,相关性达到0.49(P < 0.01)。褐飞虱迁飞峰的模拟值平均早于观测值1.5h,这可能与褐飞虱起飞迁飞的主动性及其生理特性等有关。模拟2008年10月5—7日一次冷锋无降水天气过程中的褐飞虱迁飞过程,发现此次冷锋南下和降温过程对褐飞虱的回迁影响显著,主要表现在:①在迁飞轨迹上,受热带气旋影响,广西、贵州、湖南和广东西部地区以东北风为主,有利于褐飞虱向西南方向的迁飞;②在虫量密度分布上,广东中部地区同时具备了较好的动力和温湿条件,促使大量褐飞虱向着该地区(较温暖)迁入,而湖北地区虽以西北—东北风为主,但地面气温较低(低于广东地区),不利于褐飞虱的大量迁入。综上所述,WRF-FLEXPART模式适用于褐飞虱的迁飞模拟且有较好的模拟能力,该研究对我国褐飞虱灾变的准确预警、病虫测报水平的提高具有重要的参考价值。
Abstract:
Nilaparvata lugens (St?l) is an agricultural pest that has been a serious threat to rice production in Southern China. As a migratory insect, the migration of N. lugens is similar to aerosol particle motion in the atmosphere. In this study, we used the WRF-FLEXPART model to simulate two migration processes of N. lugens, by adopting specific migratory parameters of N. lugens. The first case was conducted to simulate the migration of N. lugens to Xing’an, during the period Sep. 20th–24th, 2013. The population of N. lugens simulated using WRF-FLEXPART was consistent with the population observed in the field, and the correlation coefficient was 0.49 (P < 0.01). Further, the simulated peak of N. lugens take-off time was approximately 1.5 hours earlier than the observed value. This may be related to the initiation of N. lugens flight and take-off and their physiological properties. The second case was in a cold front process without precipitation during the period Oct. 5th–7th, 2008. The results showed that the southward front and the decrease in air temperature had a considerable influence on the migration of N. lugens. The details are as follows: ① For trajectory, tropical cyclones generate a northeast wind in Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, and the west of Guangdong, which provides advantages for N. lugens to migrate from northeast to southwest. ② For density distribution, due to good dynamic (wind direction and wind speed), temperature (warm), and humidity (wet) conditions, large numbers of N. lugens migrate into the central part of Guangdong. Compared with Guangdong, the lower surface temperature in Hubei was not favorable to a mass migration of N. lugens, although Hubei has suitable dynamic conditions (the northwest–northeast wind). In conclusion, the modeling results indicate that WRF-FLEXPART is applicable for simulating the migration of N. lugens and shows good performance in simulating the migration process of N. lugens. This research can provide an important reference for N. lugens disaster forecasting and warning in China.
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