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刘迁迁,古力米热.哈那提,王光焰,苏里坦,张音.间歇性生态输水下塔里木河下游断面尺度地下水位变化模拟.生态学报,2018,(15).http://dx.doi.org/10.5846/stxb201710111813  
间歇性生态输水下塔里木河下游断面尺度地下水位变化模拟
Sectional scale simulation of groundwater level variation in the lower reaches of Tarim River under intermittent ecological water conveyance
投稿时间:2017-10-11  修订日期:2018-04-11
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201710111813
关键词生态输水  塔里木河下游  地下水  模拟  余误差函数  非稳定流
Key Wordsecological water conveyance  Lower reaches of Tarim River  groungwater  simulation  co-error fuction  unsteady flow
基金项目国家自然科学基金项目(U1403182,U1603342);新疆优秀青年科技人才培养项目(qn2015yx033)
作者单位E-mail
刘迁迁 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 Liuqianqian215@mails.ucas.ac.cn 
古力米热.哈那提 新疆水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所  
王光焰 新疆塔里木河流域干流管理局  
苏里坦 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 sulitan@ms.xjb.ac.cn 
张音 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所  
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摘要:
为模拟间歇性生态输水过程所引起的地下水埋深变化,以塔里木河下游英苏断面2011-2015年逐月地下水埋深变化为研究对象,基于非稳定流理论,以河道附近水位边界条件作为初始求解条件,以余误差函数erfc(x)为求解函数,综合考虑地下水变化时间滞后效应及潜水蒸发作用,构建了间断性输水河道地下水埋深变化模型。通过决定系数(R2)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均相对误差(MRE)和显著性检验水平(P<0.01)作为模型评价指标,对模拟精度进行分析。结果表明:生态输水期间,在短期内,临近河道地下水埋深波动较大,而远离河道地下水埋深波动并未受到较大的影响,生态输水作用影响河岸附近地下水埋深变化存在一定时段的滞后期,且随着距离河道的增加,滞后期增长。另外,模拟结果表明基于非稳定流理论对塔里木河下游地下水变化模拟效果较好,在河岸300 m、500 m、750 m、1050 m处拟合精度R2分别达到0.701、0.654、0.701、0.625,达到了地下水模拟精度的要求,对塔里木河下游断面尺度上地下水恢复状况研究具有重要的理论意义与参考价值。
Abstract:
This paper uses 2011-2015 monthly average groundwater depth value of Yingsu-section in the lower reaches of Tarim River, with the methods of unsteady flow theory, taking the water level boundary condition near the river channel as the initial solution condition and the residual error function erfc(x) as the solution function, in addition, considering the time lag effect of groundwater change and phreatic evaporation, which intend to construct groundwater depth change model of intermittent water conveyance channel. What’s more, simulation accuracy is analyzed by means of the coefficient of decision (R2), the model evaluation indexes is estimated by the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean relative error (MRE) and the significance test level (P < 0.01). The results indicate that: Firstly, during the period of ecological water conveyance, the groundwater depth in the vicinity of the river channel fluctuates greatly in a short time, while the fluctuation of groundwater depth has not been greatly affected far from the river. Which shows the influence of ecological water transport on the groundwater depth near the river bank will lead to a certain lag period, and with the increase of the distance, the late growth of the river. Among them, C4 monitoring wells have the shortest lag period, and C7 monitoring wells have the longest lag period. Secondly, the action of unsteady flow has great influence on the groundwater depth during monthly variation and annual variation, which has an obvious change and the fluctuation. While the effect of phreatic water evaporation on the change of groundwater depth in the short term is small, however, the total influence of groundwater depth over many years can not be ignored. Thirdly, the simulation of groundwater depth change in the lower reaches of Tarim River is better based on the unsteady flow theory, the fitting accuracy R2 at 300, 500, 750, 1050 meterrs of reached 0.701, 0.654, 0.701 and 0.625 respectively, which meets the requirements for groungwater simulation accuracy and has important theoretical significance and reference value for the study of groundwater recovery in the lower reaches of Tarim River.
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