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袁伟,郭宗楼,吴军林,楼章华.黑河流域水资源承载能力分析.生态学报,2006,26(7):2108~2114 本文二维码信息
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黑河流域水资源承载能力分析
Analysis of water resources carrying capacity of Heihe river basin
投稿时间:2005-12-07  修订日期:2006-05-20
DOI:
关键词黑河流域  水资源承载能力  可持续发展  生态平衡  评价指标
Key WordsHeihe river basin  water resources carrying capacity  sustainable development  ecology balance  index of analysis
基金项目
作者单位
袁伟 浙江大学浙江 杭州 310028 
郭宗楼 浙江大学浙江 杭州 310028 
吴军林 浙江省上虞市环境保护局浙江 上虞 312300 
楼章华 浙江大学浙江 杭州 310028 
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摘要:
黑河流域属资源性缺水地区,区域水资源难以满足当地社会经济发展和生态平衡的需要。随着西部大开发战略的逐步实施,西北干旱内陆河地区水资源的支撑作用将显得愈来愈重要。因此分析黑河流域水资源现状条件下对区域经济、社会发展的承载能力,显得极为重要。根据黑河流域具体情况,结合流域经济社会发展特点、生态环境状况,以遏制并逐步改善流域生态环境为基本前提,以流域水资源承载能力为约束。首先利用水资源承载压力指数计算了现状条件下黑河流域水资源承载压力度,得出目前黑河流域水资源承载能力属于超负荷承载。水资源将成为制约黑河流域社会经济发展和保证生态平衡的重要因素。当前必须立足于当地的水资源条件,按照以供定需的原则,合理安排生活、生产和生态用水,才能实现流域经济社会和生态环境的协调和可持续发展。然后针对超载现状,对黑河流域规划水平年(2010年)水资源承载能力作进一步的分析评价,根据相关预测资料设计了3种可能情景,利用流域评价的发展系数、协调系数、公平系数和可持续发展系数,从水资源开发利用方式、社会发展方式、经济发展模式、生态恢复程度等方面分析水资源承载能力,并计算其水资源承载压力度,同时结合水资源的可持续发展建立流域可持续发展评价指标体系,进行方案组合和各种发展模式的水资源优化配置。满足流域水资源支撑经济社会可持续发展判据的方案的承载能力指标即为该方案下的水资源可持续承载能力指标。
通过对黑河流域现状及规划水平年的水资源承载能力及可持续发展度分析评价,利用水资源可持续发展战略分析,选取出了最优发展模式,为流域的可持续发展提供了基本依据。通过寻求情景方案中水资源承载能力和可持续发展度的最佳组合,实现了经济、社会与生态的可持续发展目标。结果表明:通过努力,谋求经济和社会与水资源承载能力协调发展是有可能实现的。
Abstract:
Heihe river basin is an area where its local water resources are extremely lacking. Its water resources can’t meet the need of its social and economic development and the ecological environment balance. With the strategy of Development of Western China implemented step by step, the outstanding role of the water resource in drought areas in inland river of Northwestern China is becoming more obvious. So it is an urgent task to analyze the carrying capacity of the local social and economic development under the current water resource condition. Based on the information about the feature of social and economic development and state of ecological environment in Heihe river basin, and under the premises of controlling the worsening of ecological environment and improving it, and in consideration of the water resources carrying capacity, the value of the current water resource carrying-pressing index is calculated. The result indicates that the water resources carrying capacity is beyond its carrying capacity. The social and economic development and ecological environment balance will be greatly obstructed by the limited water resource. At present, just distributing water appropriately among daily life, production, and ecological environment, the harmonious and sustainable development in this area can be realized. To solve the current problem, more analysis about the water resources carrying capacity of planning year is made. The planning year is 2010. Based on predicted data, three possible development program scenes in planning year are formulated. Besides water resource carrying-pressing index, other four indexes-development coefficient, equilibrium coefficient, equitable coefficient and sustainable coefficient-are calculated to analyze the water resource carrying ability. The four indexes reflect respectively the code of water resource utilization, ways of social and economic development, and the degree of ecological environment’s recovering from its increasingly worsening state. The best development program is determined out from the three ones by the most optimum value of the water resources carrying capacity. Water resources are properly distributed among daily life, production, and ecological environment under the best development program.
This research provides a basic reference for the sustainable development of the Heihe river basin because the optimum development mode is selected through the strategical analysis and evaluation of the current state of Heihe river、 its water resources carrying capacity and its sustainable development in the planning year. The goal of sustainable development among society, economy and ecological environment will be achieved under the best development program scene. The result suggests that the harmonious and sustainable development among society, economy and ecological environment within water resources carrying capacity can be realized with certain effort.
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