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胡科,刘晓磊,魏希文,Nath Reshmita,崔雪锋.应用生态网络分析方法评价中国经济系统的可持续性.生态学报,2016,36(24):7942~7950 本文二维码信息
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应用生态网络分析方法评价中国经济系统的可持续性
Quantifying the economic sustainability of China: an ecological network analysis approach
投稿时间:2015-05-13  修订日期:2016-01-12
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201505130979
关键词生态网络分析  中国经济系统  增长  发展  可持续性
Key Wordsecological network analysis  China economic system  growth  development  sustainability
基金项目国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271542);西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划资助项目(NWNU-LKQN-14-25)
作者单位E-mail
胡科 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070;北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875  
刘晓磊 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875  
魏希文 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875  
Nath Reshmita 中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心, 北京 100029  
崔雪锋 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875 xuefeng.cui@bnu.edu.cn 
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摘要:
将生态网络分析方法应用于中国经济系统的可持续性分析。依据1987—2010年的投入产出数据,构建中国经济系统的货币网络流,用生态网络指标量化经济系统的网络特征和变化情况,探讨中国经济系统中增长与发展的变化及其可持续性。主要结论有:(1)1987—2010年间中国经济系统的总吞吐量呈指数增长趋势,网络规模不断增长。(2)1987—2010年间中国经济的系统效率在波动中呈增加趋势,但增长幅度较小。从长期阶段看,1997—2010年间的系统效率和组织能力比1987—1995年间有明显提高,表明经济系统在后期获得了一定程度的发展。但系统效率在2002年达到高点后呈现下降趋势。(3)1987—2010年间中国经济系统的上升性和发展能力都在持续提高,但主要来自规模增长。增长和发展的量化结果表明,1987—2010年间中国经济系统上升性的提高,90%来自总吞吐量(增长),只有10%来自效率改进(发展)。(4)1987—2010年间的中国经济系统的α平均值为0.138,远小于0.37或0.33的可持续性最优平衡点,系统处于缺乏效率的不可持续的状态。要提高经济系统的可持续性,需要提高经济系统的效率(结构)和组织能力。
Abstract:
The term economic development is quite different from the economic growth, but both are closely related to the economic sustainability. Therefore, the quantification of growth and development is extremely important to assess the sustainable development of a country's economy. In this paper, we quantify the growth, development, and sustainability of Chinese economy by employing the Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) approach. This has been widely used to address the sustainability of ecological system, and subsequently being adopted in economic system for analysis and case study. In the case of China, using input-output table data, the economic system can be represented by a six sector currency network flow. The ENA indicators of the network are calculated from 1987 to 2010, to address the features and trends of growth, development, and sustainability of the Chinese economic system. The results show that, the Total System Throughput (TST) of the network grows exponentially from 1987 to 2010, which implies that the Chinese economic system grows rapidly from 1987 to 2010. During the same period, the trend in the efficiency of economic system is rather complex, by smaller degree of increase with fluctuations. From the perspective of later decade, the efficiency during 1997-2010 is certainly higher than the efficiency during 1987-1995. This implies that the Chinese economic system has obtained some degree of development in the latter half of our analysis. Contrastingly, the efficiency exhibits a declining trend from 2002 onwards, which needs to be paid special attention. Both the Ascendency (A) and the Development Capacity (C) of Chinese economic system continued to improve from 1987 to 2010, which is primarily due to the rapid growth of the TST in the same period. TST, contributes atleast 90% to the Chinese economic system between 1987 and 2010, whereas, the contribution of the efficiency is only 10% during the same period. This implies that growth and development attribute 90% and 10% to the Chinese economic system between 1987 and 2010, respectively. The average value of the Chinese economic system i.e. α is 0.138 during 1987-2010, which is far less than the Sustainability Optimal Value of 0.37 (or 0.33). This is indicative to the fact that the Chinese economic system is in unsustainable condition, and that is due to lack of efficiency. In order to improve the sustainability of the economic system, some measures need to be taken to improve the efficiency and organization of the economic system.In the six sectors currency network of China, the TST indicator exhibits more or less similar trend with the GDP of China. Average Mutual Information (AMI) indicator' change trend is also in accord with the reality change of the Chinese economy. But the average α value of the network during 1987-2010 is just 0.138 and that is much lower than the Sustainability Optimal Value of 0.37. This is from the observation in the theoretical experiments, and is uncertain whether this value suits appropriately to the economic system or not. Even through, we know that the Chinese currency network average α value (0.138) is lower than the global virtual water trade network (0.181) and the global petroleum trade network (0.199) average α value during 1896-2001 and 2007-2001, respectively. This further concludes that the Chinese economic system is in the low efficiency condition.
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