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张振龙,孙慧,苏洋.中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放的空间分布与演变趋势.生态学报,2017,37(16):5263~5272 本文二维码信息
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中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放的空间分布与演变趋势
The spatial distribution and evolution trends of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the northwest arid region of China
投稿时间:2016-05-19  
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201605190965
关键词农牧业生态系统碳排放  空间分布  演变趋势  西北干旱地区
Key Wordsagricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions  spatial distribution  evolution trends  Northwest arid region of China
基金项目国家自然科学基金项目(71463056,41461114);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2016D01B054)
作者单位E-mail
张振龙 新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心, 乌鲁木齐 830046;新疆大学经济与管理学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046  
孙慧 新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心, 乌鲁木齐 830046;新疆大学经济与管理学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046 18999921777@163.com 
苏洋 新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046  
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摘要:
研究西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放的空间分布特点与演变趋势对于我国制定更具针对性的农牧业减排政策具有重要的指导意义。对2000-2013年中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放量进行测算的基础上,运用非参数核密度方法对中国西北干旱地区农牧业生态系统碳排放的演变趋势进行分析,研究发现:中国西北地区农牧业生态系统碳排放总量增势强劲,但空间非均衡性特征明显,以新疆最高,甘肃次之,陕西和青海居中,宁夏最低,农牧业碳排放源从以畜牧业为主向以种植业为主转变;西北地区农牧业碳排放强度呈下降趋势,省域差距明显,碳排放强度由大到小排序依次是:青海 > 宁夏 > 甘肃 > 新疆 > 陕西。从考察期内西北干旱地区农牧业碳排放的地区差距来看,整体上呈扩大趋势,但相对微弱的变化态势则反映了其变化幅度相对有限,其原因在于四种碳排放的变化趋势不一致,具体表现为:农田土壤碳排放的地区差距明显扩大;农用物资碳排放的地区差距在大幅扩大的同时,还表现出峰值从陡峭变为平缓,变化区间大幅扩大的现象;牲畜肠道发酵碳排放地区差距大幅缩小;牲畜粪便碳排放的地区差距也明显缩小。
Abstract:
It has long been recognized that there are certain physical limits on the global availability of economically valuable natural resources underlying their potential exhaustibility. However, for effective stewardship of earth's resources, these ecological constraints must be considered in the economy-environment interaction. Sustainability in agricultural production systems can partly be achieved through resource recovery, in which enhancing crop productivity through resources recovered from wastes is considered a potential measure to ensure food security. It has significant guideline sense to enact more specific policies on agricultural carbon emissions that doing the research on the characteristics and evolution rules of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon distribution. On the basis of the estimation of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the arid regions of Northwest China from 2000 to 2013, this study analyzes the evolution of carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in this area using the non-parametric kernel density estimation method. Known as a non-parametric estimation method, kernel density estimation is usually used to estimate an unknown probability density function. In quantitative spatial analysis, kernel density estimation has been widely used for density surface mapping and "hotspot" detection by converting spatial sample points to a raster map of density surface. The results indicate that agricultural carbon emissions in the northwest region of China has grown remarkably; however, its spatial non-equilibrium characteristic is obvious. The emissions of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon in Xinjiang ranked first, followed by Gansu, Shaanxi, and Qinghai provinces, and Ningxia had the lowest emissions. Agricultural carbon emissions transformed from livestock breeding to the planting industry. The intensity of agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the northwest region is declining, but the regional disparity is obvious. The intensity of carbon emissions in the descending order is:Qinghai > Ningxia > Gansu > Xinjiang > Shaanxi. The agricultural and animal husbandry carbon emissions in the arid regions of Northwest China shows an increasing tendency. But the relatively weak change trend reflects its relatively limited changes, which lies in different changing tend of four carbon emissions. The performances of the four carbon sources indicate that the regional differences in carbon agricultural land emissions are high. The regional gap of carbon emissions from agricultural and animal husbandry materials is greatly expanded, sometimes transferring from sharp to flat. Regional differences in carbon emissions from the intestinal tract of livestock as well as from livestock manure were significantly reduced.
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