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张振龙,孙慧.新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联——基于VAR模型.生态学报,2017,37(16):5273~5284 本文二维码信息
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新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联——基于VAR模型
Research on the dynamic relationship between water-intensive industrial ecosystem and economic growth in Xinjiang based on VAR model
投稿时间:2016-05-19  
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201605190966
关键词产业生态系统  经济增长  动态关系  VAR模型  新疆
Key Wordswater-intensive industrial ecosystem  economic growth  dynamic relationship  VAR model  Xinjiang
基金项目国家自然科学基金项目(71463056,41461114);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2016D01B054)
作者单位E-mail
张振龙 新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心, 乌鲁木齐 830046;新疆大学经济与管理学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046  
孙慧 新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心, 乌鲁木齐 830046;新疆大学经济与管理学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046 18999921777@163.com 
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摘要:
新疆正面临"五化同步"对水资源的需求不断增长与水资源开发利用过度的矛盾。水资源瓶颈制约已成为影响新疆经济可持续发展和长治久安的突出问题之一。运用VAR模型,通过ADF检验、脉冲响应函数和方差贡献度分解,对2000-2014年新疆耗水产业生态系统和经济增长的长期均衡关系进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)经济增长与总用水量、工业用水量和农业用水量之间均存在长期均衡关系;(2)经济发展对用水量产生负向冲击,工业用水量和农业用水量随着经济发展出现正向冲击效应。(3)新疆经济快速增长伴随着水资源的大力开发和过度利用。据此提出对策建议,通过实施严格的退地减水政策,明确用水总量控制和定额指标,加强跨流域调水工程建设,防止浪费等多途径维持新疆水资源可持续利用和耗水产业健康发展。
Abstract:
Xinjiang is coping with the growing concern of increasing level of demand and overuse of water resources caused by 5-tion synchronization. Excessive utilization of water resources strongly influences local economic development and plays a vital role in accelerating ecological degradation. The bottleneck of water resources has become one of the outstanding issues that affects sustainable development and long-term stability of Xinjiang's economy. To address these concerns, the government should strengthen the construction of water infrastructure for improving water use efficiency, and thereby increasing the quantity and frequency of irrigation during an ecological recovery. The VAR model can deal with conditions when some random parameters or variables appear in the modeling formulation of a program. Such random parameters are expressed as probability density functions (PDFs). This implies that an ADF test technique can be employed when the quality of uncertain information is comprehensive. The results can be interpreted under different levels of probabilities (or risks). Previously, a number of stochastic programming methods were developed to support decision making for water resources planning and management. Among them, the VAR model proved effective for problems where analysis of policy scenarios is desired, and the right-hand-side of the coefficients are random with known probability distributions. Therefore, as an extension of previous works, the objective of this study is to present practical research on the long-term equilibrium relationship between Xinjiang's utilization of water resources and economic growth using the VAR model, ADF test, and cointegration, accompanied by the decomposition of generalized impulse response and variance contribution degree. Firstly, the results show the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and total water consumption, industrial water, and agricultural water. Secondly, rapid economic development has a negative impact on water use; yet, industrial and agricultural use of water has a positive impact. Finally, accompanied by the booming economy of Xinjiang, it carried the problem of over-exploitation and over-utilization of water resources. Based on the above factors, this article recommends several suggestions for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the robust development of Xinjiang's economy, including implementing strict policies on conserving the depleting land and water resources, clarifying the amount of water use, strengthening the construction of inter-basin water transfer projects, and preventing excessive consumption, among others. The results obtained will help local decision makers to formulate policies that mandate effective water exploitation and allocation, and thus facilitate the local agricultural sustainability.
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