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廉丽姝,李宝富,陈忠升,陈亚宁,孙小银.基于WRF模式评估土地利用/覆被变化的气候和水文效应.生态学报,2018,38(3):917~925 本文二维码信息
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基于WRF模式评估土地利用/覆被变化的气候和水文效应
Quantifying the climatic and hydrological effects of land use/cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting model
投稿时间:2016-12-26  
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201612262674
关键词LUCC  径流  WRF  气候效应  间接水文效应
Key WordsLUCC  runoff  WRF  climate effect  indirect hydrological effect
基金项目山东省自然科学基金(BS2014HZ022,ZR2015DL001)
作者单位E-mail
廉丽姝 曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院, 日照 276826  
李宝富 曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院, 日照 276826
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011 
lenny006@163.com 
陈忠升 西华师范大学国土资源学院, 南充 637002  
陈亚宁 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011  
孙小银 曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院, 日照 276826  
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摘要:
目前针对土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)导致产汇流等水文过程(直接水文效应)变化的研究较多,而对于LUCC导致区域气候变化引起的径流变化(间接水文效应)研究却鲜有报道。采用天气预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF模式)和弹性系数等方法研究了沂河流域1990-2010年LUCC产生的间接水文效应。结果表明:WRF模式对研究区气温具有较好的模拟能力,模拟值与实测值的相关系数较高(0.86-0.97,P<0.001);虽然模式对降水的模拟精度低于气温,但模拟值与实测值之间的相关系数(0.41-0.91)均达到了P<0.05显著性水平。近20年来,研究区LUCC主要是从旱地向建设用地(747.3km2)和裸地(132.4km2)转化的过程。LUCC引起2013年1月和10月气温增加了0.2℃,导致7月气温减小了0.2℃,而4月气温基本稳定。LUCC对1月、4月和10月降水变化的影响很弱,而对7月降水变化影响较大,表现在使其减少了23.7mm。弹性分析表明,1960-2013年,流域年均降水和气温变化1%,将引起年径流量分别变化2.4%和1.8%。1990-2010年,LUCC引起2013年沂河流域降水和气温变化使得径流量分别改变了18.4%和1.7%。
Abstract:
Currently, most studies have been conducted to determine the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the runoff yield and conflux (Direct Hydrological Effect), while only a few studies have been conducted to determine the runoff change caused by the LUCC-induced regional climate change (Indirect Hydrological Effect). In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and elasticity method were used to investigate the indirect hydrological effect caused by LUCC in the Yihe River from 1990 to 2010. The results suggested that the WRF model simulated the temperature of the study area well with high correlation coefficients (0.86-0.97, P<0.001) between the modeled and measured values. Although the simulation precision of model in precipitation was lower than that in temperature, the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.41 to 0.91 with P<0.05 statistically significant level. The main land use in the study area was farmland (including dry and paddy lands), representing approximately 80% of the total area. In the recent 20 years, the land use in the study area transformed gradually from the dry land to the urbanized land (747.3km2) and bare/sparse vegetation (132.4km2). The temperature increased by 0.2℃ in January and October and decreased by 0.2℃ in July, which was caused by the LUCC, while the temperature in April was basically stable. The LUCC caused the largest temperature changes, i. e., 0.4-1.3℃ in the mixed forests and water bodies, and the smallest temperature changes, i. e., <0.1℃ in the deciduous broadleaf forests and wetlands. The LUCC showed a weak impact on the precipitation change in January, April, and October, while substantially affecting the precipitation in July with a decrease of 23.7mm. Therefore, the LUCC significantly affected the summer precipitation because of the abundant precipitation in summer, thus changing the moisture fluxes in the study area. The results also indicate that the spatial variations in precipitation due to the LUCC were weakly associated with the underlying surface. Elastic analysis showed that the annual temperature and precipitation changed by 1% during 1960-2013, which can induce runoffs to change by 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively. During 1990-2010, the LUCC-induced changes of precipitation and temperature led runoffs to change by 18.4% and 1.7%, respectively.
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